Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Do you need gold? What if . . . ?

Paul Nathan had a great commentary published on the Kitco web site recently.  In it, he discusses the possiblity that gold will be the "New" money.  I strongly recommend the entire article, but even for those in a hurry, it's worth reading the following:
Those that argue that the price of gold is approximating a bubble, miss the point.  What if governments around the world lose the confidence of those that hold their paper money?  What if individuals through the private market desire a non-governmental money, as they are starting to today?  What if the billions of individuals who do not own gold start to demand it?  What price of gold then, knowing that all the gold ever produced would fit into a large swimming pool?

I think for many of us accumulating precious metals now, it's all about the question "what if. . . ?"  What if I need a tank of gas, a medicine for my child, some food, or even a weapon, and the only sellers around say no to dollar bills?
 
To those who think the above scenarios sound far-fetched, I'd recommend The Black Swan, by Nassim Taleb.  His turkey story tells us (much more elegantly than I relate here) that the turkey's whole life is ideal--until the day before Thanksgiving.  On that day, the turkey might have been well advised to have a krugerrand or two on hand.

The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility"

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